Forrester Forecasts AI Could Eliminate 10.4 Million U.S. Jobs by 2030, But Warns of Over-Automation Risks

Summary

On January 13, 2026, Forrester published a new forecast projecting that AI and automation could eliminate 10.4 million U.S. jobs by 2030, representing 6.1% of total employment. The report, authored by analyst J.P. Gownder, frames these losses as "structural and permanent" — distinct from the 8.7 million cyclical job losses during the Great Recession. The forecast attributes 50% of projected job losses to generative AI specifically, up from 29% in Forrester's 2023 forecast. Meanwhile, 20% of posi