Amazon and Google Are Winning the AI Capex Race — But What's the Prize?

Summary

Following Q4 2025 earnings calls, Amazon and Google emerged as the leaders in AI infrastructure spending for 2026. Amazon projected $200 billion in total capital expenditures across AI, chips, robotics, and satellites — up from $131.8 billion in 2025. Google projected $175-185 billion for 2026, up from $91.4 billion the year before. Meta projected $115-135 billion, while Microsoft's most recent quarterly figure projects to roughly $150 billion annually. Oracle projected $50 billion. Despite the