NVIDIA AI Infrastructure S-Curve and CapEx: 2026 Outlook

Summary

Hyperscalers (Microsoft, Google, Amazon, Meta, Apple) are planning $600–700B in AI-related CapEx for 2026, ~36% above prior year. NVIDIA holds ~92% of the GPU market and is priced at 24x earnings with ~57% projected profit growth. Blackwell chips have largely displaced H100/H200. Global AI compute capacity is equivalent to over 15M H100 GPUs (8-bit ops); total AI chip power exceeds 10 GW. Agentic AI spending is projected to grow from under $1B (2024) to $51.5B by 2028; inference is expected to a